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A systematic quantitative backcasting on low-carbon society policy in case of Kyoto city
Based on the concept of backcasting, this paper proposes a methodology and a model, called the backcasting model (BCM), that organises a system of various LCS options and projects their detailed schedule toward a given target year. The methodology and model mainly focus on describing a complex system of LCS options and the consistency of their schedule.
Type of content:
Assets
Type of asset:
Use case
Big data potential
Yes
Policy domains:
Environment & Energy
Phase in the policy cycle:
Policy Design and Analysis
Open license availability
No
Ease of use
Low
Tags:
E-Governance
Strategic planning
Addresses:
| SWOT Analysis for A systematic quantitative backcasting on low-carbon society policy in case of Kyoto city |
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|---|---|---|
| Helpful | Harmful | |
Internal |
Strengths• The model investigates and selects which options (countermeasures and policies) to introduce and when and at what intensity in order to best achieve the future social and economic activities portrayed in the scenarios while satisfying the service demand today and throughout the period up to the target year based on certain criteria. • The model also presents a Gantt chart with pathways of CO2 emission, investment | Weaknesses• Low ease of use • It takes time to construct infrastructure (city infrastructure, transportation systems, energy infrastructure, buildings, etc.) generally has a long service life and cannot easily be modified once constructed. |
External |
Opportunities• Technologies have learning-by-doing effects: the additional cost of low-carbon technologies will fall as the technologies spread. • If actions are delayed, learning-by-doing effects may fail to work sufficiently, resulting in higher total investment requirements to achievea LCS. • No infrastructure can be built immediately; hence it would be difficult to switch suddenly to a LCS in the years just before 2050. • Future technological development has several uncertainties. If one of the currently dominant technologies falls behind schedule, it will fail to spread as expected and CO2 emission targets will not be met. • Early actions will open up new opportunities for the spread of alternative actions toward the LCS should a dominant technology fail in some way • The infrastructure built today is likely to be in use in 2050. Thus, the framework of a LCS is already being established. |
Threats• If actions are delayed, learning-by-doing effects may fail to work sufficiently, resulting in higher total investment requirements for achieving a LCS. • No infrastructure can be built immediately; hence it would be difficult to switch suddenly to a LCS in the years just before 2050: • Future technological development has several uncertainties. |
