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Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning
A strategic risk assessment and analysis tool, which aims to provide early alerts on potential threats to national security by developing a network that links various independent government agencies. Some of the latest technologies employed in the RAHS system allow for model-building, monitoring, weak signal detection and pattern analysis
Type of content:
Assets
Type of asset:
Tool
Big data potential
Yes
Policy domains:
Foreign Affairs and Defence
Phase in the policy cycle:
Policy Design and Analysis
TRL
7
Open license availability
Yes
Tags:
Predictive analytics
Cooperative work
Serves:
Addresses:
| SWOT Analysis for Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning |
||
|---|---|---|
| Helpful | Harmful | |
Internal |
Strengths• With the help of international partners, as well as through experimentation, the Programme has developed an extensive range of processes that enabled agencies to collect, analyse, inform, model and monitor emerging strategic issues. • RAHS software platform which is specifically designed and developed with capabilities to support research and analysis using information extraction and visualisation, modelling and survey tools. • Information products such as SKAN and Vanguard. • Three different centres of expertise connected to the RAHS Programme Office: RAHS Think Centre (RTC), RAHS Solutions Centre (RSC), RAHS Experimentation Centre (REC). • Explores methods and tools that complement scenario planning in anticipating strategic issues with significant possible impact on National security. |
Weaknesses• System prototype demonstration in operational environment • A RAHS system needs to assist analysts in identifying patterns from seemingly disparate data. This can only be done using discovery-based methods which machine systems are weak at. • There is a constant impetus to update the RAHS system: The RAHS concept is still evolving as methodologies are continually integrated into operational processes, resulting in new functional requirements. RAHS also uses a broad range of technology areas such as text analytics and modelling which are developing rapidly. Therefore, a robust process is needed to manage the system changes and continually validate the system against the analyst’s operations which are constantly changing |
External |
Opportunities• Secure & resilient nation: • Networked government, a cohesive society, an engaged people. • Scanning for risks and opportunities that will impact Singapore's future. • Complexity: dealing with problems that have the potential to "spin" out of control. • Integrating the many parts and agencies which collectively ensure National Security by looking ahead, catalysing capability development and creating shared central awareness, being a collaborative pathfinder to all. |
Threats• Risk that individuals may have inappropriate access to these systems: Policy requires that components ensure that user access is controlled and limited based on positive user identification and authentication mechanisms that support the minimum requirements of access control, least privilege, and system integrity. • Delivering a system that supports RAHS analysis involves, complex and challenging engineering problems: RAHS analysts operate in a different paradigm that requires systems to support the mental processes of discovery rather than deduction. • There is a constant impetus to update the RAHS system: The RAHS concept is still evolving as methodologies are continually integrated into operational processes, resulting in new functional requirements. RAHS also uses a broad range of technology areas such as text analytics and modelling which are developing rapidly. Therefore, a robust process is needed to manage the system changes and continually validate the system against the analyst’s operations which are constantly changing |
